The Kremlin is profiting from Syrias energy crisis in an effort to keep its military bases in the nation, even as it refuses to turn over fugitive previous dictator Bashar al-Assad to the new government.Syria has actually remained in desperate requirement of oil, diesel and gas considering that December 2024, when Islamist rebel forces toppled Assad whose program Moscow had actually propped up for over a decade.Moscow has already begun oil and gas shipments to Syria in an effort to keep its military presence there, 3 sources knowledgeable about the Kremlins diplomacy informed The Moscow Times, speaking on condition of privacy due to the level of sensitivity of the matter.The shipments were introduced in February at President Vladimir Putins guideline, with efforts made to keep the deliveries discreet, the sources said.Support for the Syrian individuals who we consider as our pals is undoubtedly in progress, and weve been advised to continue quietly, a source in Russias oil and gas industry informed The Moscow Times.Though the problems facing Assads regime had long been known to Moscow, his unexpected ousting by Turkish-backed rebel forces left Russia without allies on the ground, a Russian diplomat knowledgeable about the scenario recalled.All our friends in Syria changed sides on the very day of Assads flight and the oppositions arrival even on their social networks.
This produced enormous troubles for our policy, both in Syria and throughout the Middle East, the diplomat said.A Russian Air Force jet fighter in Syria.kremlin.ruGranting asylum to Assad and his household in Russia only worsened Moscows relationship with Syrias new leadership and sustained negative sentiment among the Syrian public, the diplomat added.That was another nail in the casket of our friendship with the Syrian people, but we had no other choice, he said.But Moscow has actually made clear to the new Syrian government that it will not turn over Assad, although the subject supposedly came up throughout negotiations.Our leaders [Putins] position is that we do not quit our own, no matter what, one Russian diplomat close to the Kremlin informed The Moscow Times.Assad had lots of enemies in the Middle East.
Giving him up would tarnish Putins authority; it would be seen as a betrayal of our core principles.
And the new Syrian authorities would tear him to pieces, stated another diplomat.For almost a decade, Russia held significant sway in the area after intervening in the nations civil war in 2015 to support Assad.
Now, its future impact depends greatly on relations with Turkey, the United States and Israel, a Kremlin-linked Middle East analyst informed The Moscow Times.The specialist kept in mind that Moscow has actually been displeased with Israel, which has actually totally occupied the Golan Heights and assaulted Syrian military bases and defense industry centers given that Assads ouster.We made lots of mistakes, everyone here [in the Kremlin and Foreign Ministry] knows that.
But openly, we try to project optimism.
We now have to rebuild relationships from scratch, the analyst said.To maintain its influence in Syria, Moscow must reveal the brand-new regime that it will correspond in its policy of backing Syrian statehood and sovereignty; the battle versus terrorism; rejection of neocolonialism; and a legal resolution to the dispute, specialists from the Kremlin-linked Valdai Club stated.
At the exact same time, Russia must be ready to act with tactical versatility, they added.Despite preliminary pessimism about Russias continued impact in Syria following Assads departure, as shown in intelligence reports and policy memos, Russian forces still manage its marine center in Tartus and the Khmeimim Air Base.According to Middle East scholar Ibrahim Ibrahimov, Russia may eventually hold on to both bases, albeit in a scaled-down format.
Additionally, Russia might keep its naval base at Tartus and give up the Khmeimim air base, he said.Turkey, which backs the brand-new Syrian government, has apparently been promoting such an arrangement, stated Nikolai Sukhov, a senior fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations who until just recently headed the Russian state-funded cultural diplomacy companies mission in Syria.In exchange, Moscow would be anticipated to help restore infrastructure damaged by Russian airstrikes, provide fuel and food and assist in restoring Syrias health care system.In addition, Russia which had actually assisted the Assad routine print its nationwide currency resumed banknote shipments just days after Putins Feb.
12 phone call with interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa.
A second delivery of banknotes arrived in Damascus in early March.The supply of our energy resources was among the most crucial subjects during the conference between our negotiators and Syrias transitional president, a Russian federal government official told The Moscow Times.
After the call between our president and al-Sharaa, the order was given to begin deliveries.Syrias fuel crisis began in December 2024, after Assad was ousted and oil shipments from Iran one of the previous routines closest allies were halted.
This developed an acute lack for the brand-new federal government in spite of Syrias abundant oil fields, most of which lie in areas outside its control.Energy shipmentsGlobal traders and shipowners stay careful due to Western sanctions on Syria even as the European Union eases limitations and the United States provides waivers for important needs.The Kremlin, however, has actually moved quickly to take advantage of Syrias economic instability.
Over the past month, several fuel tankers from Russia have actually arrived in Syria.On March 25, the Sakina, a Barbados-flagged crude oil tanker with a deadweight of 157,000 metric tons, docked at a Syrian port and unloaded approximately 100,000 tons of oil, according to TankerTrackers.com.Another Barbados-flagged tanker, the Aquatica, bring Russian light sweet crude, came to the port of Baniyas on March 21, local media reported.Both globally sanctioned ships crammed oil in Russias Murmansk region in February and delivered 100,000 heaps each, according to Reuters.Earlier in March, the Prosperity tanker came to Baniyas, home to Syrias two biggest oil refineries, the state-run SANA news company reported.
The vessel, which provided 37,000 lots of diesel, had been packed at Russias Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, according to Noam Raydan of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.Built in 2006, Prosperity was formerly NS Pride of Sovcomflot and is now associated with Dubai-based Fornex, a business active in Russian energy trading.
The ship is sanctioned by the United States , the EU and the U.K.All of these tankers switched off their transponders when approaching Syrian ports or gone into false locations into the Automatic Identification System (AIS) to avoid detection.Souhire Medini, a French diplomat and checking out fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, highlighted the pragmatism behind Russias actions.After participating in the damage of Syria, Russia now is ready to take advantage of the vacuum and re-anchor itself on Syria via energy supply, Medini wrote on X.For Syrias brand-new authorities, the continued presence of Russian military bases could function as a counterbalance to United States forces in the east, Israeli forces in the south and Turkish troops in the north, independent Middle East expert Ruslan Suleymanov told The Moscow Times.Moreover, al-Sharaa comprehends that Russia is a long-term member of the UN Security Council and might possibly take part in a vote to remove Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from the terrorist list.
Russia also holds veto power.
Thats why al-Sharaa wouldnt want to provoke a fight with Moscow and for now, were seeing ongoing interest in Russia, Suleymanov said.He included that much depends on Moscow itself.What Russia can provide in return that stays an open concern, he said.