NEW DELHI: A special report in Scientific American has highlighted the catastrophic consequences of a nuclear attack on the United States, particularly targeting its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch facilities.
In the event of such an attack, an estimated 300 million people in the US could face the risk of death due to exposure to radioactive fallout within four days.The study, which models the effects of a nuclear strike, suggests that an adversary would likely target the US's ICBM silos as a primary objective.These silos are located in Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Wyoming.
Despite the low population density in these states, the spread of radioactive material could be extensive due to wind patterns.Scientists used weather data from 2021 to simulate the aftermath of an 800-kiloton warhead striking all 450 ICBM silos simultaneously.
The worst-case scenario predicted by their maps indicates that 90 percent of the population in the lower 48 states, along with residents in northern Mexico and populous regions of Canada, could receive lethal doses of radiation.If the US population receives prior notice and can remain sheltered for a minimum of four days, acute radiation exposure would still result in several million deaths across the country.
However, without adequate shelter, the death toll could potentially double.
The unpredictable nature of wind patterns puts the entire population of the contiguous United States at risk, along with the most densely populated regions of Canada and the northern states of Mexico.
In total, this scenario endangers the lives of over 300 million people, the Scientific American report said.The study also considered a more conservative estimate, averaging the impact of shifting winds on radioactive fallout across the continent.
Even in this scenario, many inhabitants of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Minnesota would receive average doses greater than 1 Gy, enough to cause fatalities from acute radiation syndrome.Symptoms of radiation syndrome, which can be fatal at high doses, include nausea, fatigue, vomiting, diarrhea, skin damage, seizures, and coma.
The report, published in Scientific American, comes as the US government is investing $1.5 trillion to upgrade its aging nuclear arsenal, including weapons stored in these western silos.The findings of this report are more alarming than previous estimates from 1976 and 1988, thanks to improved weather modeling techniques.
These ICBM silos, originally intended as a deterrent against nuclear attacks from foreign powers, also pose as prime targets for a preemptive strike.
Such an attack, as the report suggests, would drastically alter the population of North America and beyond.